What is "this" that I am talking about?
Money.
That is something that Microsoft has a lot of. A couple of weeks ago someone sent me an email that alluded to the fact that Microsoft's Zune might not knock the iPod from its market dominant position, but that future versions of it could. The argument went like this: remember when the Xbox came out, and Sony's PS2 continued to dominate. But Microsoft sold the Xbox at a loss, never turning a profit on it and then rapidly came out with the next version of it before Sony could deliver the PS3. If Microsoft can do that with the xBox, is the Zune destined to take the same strategic path? Microsoft could sell the device at a loss and continue to evolve it until it bested the iPod. Apple on the other hand does not have the luxury of selling the devices at a loss.
I thought about that approach, and then let it go. Then I read another opinion piece on another very good blog, Blackfriars' Marketing and they drove the point home even more. What if Microsoft decided to simply give the Zune away, say sell it for $99? Now they'd have pushed the price down so far that it could be an impulse buy. Something people could/would buy and figure, "hey, if it sucks, who cares....I only spent $99." In this give-it-away-for-nothing scenario it could indeed cause Apple to falter and stumble in the same way that Sony did. The reason would be, because Apple can't afford to give the iPod away at a loss. Microsoft has deep pockets and has often given products away by subsidizing them with dollars from their cash cow products, like Windows XP and Microsoft Office.
Now I still stand by my belief that end users want a complete and robust end-to-end user experience and not necessarily a less expensive device. If it was cost, then there have been many devices that have already come and gone that cost less than the iPod. But what if Microsoft delivers an experience that is not as good, but pretty good and virtually free? Give the device away and make money on subscription fees. That's what they are doing with the Xbox 360 right? Losing money on the hardware and making it up on games and Xbox Live? This pressure that is created by not having to be concerned with what a product launch does to the bottom line is exactly what has caused Sony to become utterly incapacitated by Microsoft. The same could happen to Apple and we could see the iPod lose marketshare.
Is all this good for the consumer? Sadly it isn't. Microsoft did it with Internet Explorer to kill off Netscape and what did it leave us? Years where nothing was ever done to advance the web browser. As soon as Microsoft manages to drive a stake into the heart of Sony, do you think that we'll see revolutionary things being done with the next Xbox? Not a chance. Once the competition has been eliminated then it is time to stay the course and begin to make back the money that you lost in the early years. The same I'm afraid would be true with the iPod. Once Microsoft could gain a toehold on the market and eventually dominate, they would limit choice and simply make money from the current basket of Zune-products at hand.
So will it be a single device that comes along to kill the iPod? No. It'll be slow death grip that Microsoft applies to slowly try and chock the air supply (cash flow) of Apple's world class product. What Apple needs to do to ensure that they don't become roadkill like Sony's next generation game machine is to move quickly and outpace Microsoft. They need to continue to differentiate the total user experience. By doing so they can refuse to play Microsoft's price game and force Microsoft to come play their game of innovation. I was disappointed that Apple didn't launch the next-gen iPod that we thought they did, but perhaps they were bidding their time? Perhaps they want Microsoft to release the Zune and then, once the market sees what it is and what it is priced at, Apple will effectively say "That's nice...but so last year...here is the new standard in portable entertainment." Then no matter what price Microsoft sets the Zune at, be it $99 or $9, Apple can stay out of arms length.
It is a constant cycle of innovation and not allowing the "other" guy to catch up. In the scenario of Apple vs. Microsoft however, it isn't just innovation that Apple needs to worry about, its the deep pockets and patience of the Redmond giant.
Finally someone understands its about money. Money to sell a product without profit. Money to market the poop out of it. That's what it takes, not a new feature.
Posted by: zune | September 27, 2006 at 12:12 AM
great perspective in this post. you are totally right on the money mip. it is sad but true but really isn't that what business is all about? trying to out fox your competition? microsoft is doing it at a lose because they can! if apple could, they would too, no?
Posted by: frazie | September 28, 2006 at 12:46 PM